Fiorentina 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Fiorentina's favour (1.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Hellas Verona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 45% | Hellas Verona 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.69 xG and Hellas Verona 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.141 / defence 0.974 | Hellas Verona attack 0.879 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.121. Data: 53 Fiorentina games / 53 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 20%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Hellas Verona 5.00. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 40% | Hellas Verona 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Fiorentina 1.69 / Hellas Verona 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.141 / def 0.974 | Hellas Verona attack 0.879 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona part of?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 54% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fiorentina and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Record (4 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.14x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.88x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
54%
1.87
26%
3.82
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.65
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
4%
26.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.96 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 22W 14D 17L from 53 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 28L across 53 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 13W 7D 6L from 26 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 3W 7D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.85 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 22W 14D 17L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 15D 28L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Hellas Verona away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.77 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 58%, Hellas Verona 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fiorentina) and 35% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 46% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fiorentina's recent games and 35% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.69 xG and Hellas Verona 0.96 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Hellas Verona attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 54% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 20%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 45%, Hellas Verona 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.