Empoli 0-3 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Sampdoria at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 0W 2D 1L from 3 Serie A matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 67% versus Sampdoria 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 67% | Sampdoria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.08 xG and Sampdoria 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.831 / defence 1.469 | Sampdoria attack 0.698 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.356. Data: 3 Empoli games / 3 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 67% | Sampdoria 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.08 / Sampdoria 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.831 / def 1.469 | Sampdoria attack 0.698 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sampdoria xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sampdoria kick off?
Empoli vs Sampdoria kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Empoli 0 - 3 Sampdoria.
Where is Empoli vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sampdoria part of?
Empoli vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Sampdoria in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.83) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.73
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.47
1.39
Sampdoria xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Empoli and 1.39 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Empoli or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Empoli
2
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Sampdoria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 67%, Sampdoria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Empoli) and 33% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sampdoria in 33%; Sampdoria in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Empoli's recent matches and 33% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Empoli's recent games and 33% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sampdoria run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Empoli 0-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.08 xG and Sampdoria 1.39 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sampdoria outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.47 against Sampdoria attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 44%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 67%, Sampdoria 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.00 PPG, Sampdoria 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.