Empoli 1-3 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Empoli against 1.20 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Lecce in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Lecce — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 39% versus Lecce 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 33% | Lecce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.00 xG and Lecce 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.681 / defence 0.892 | Lecce attack 0.593 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.320. Empoli's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Empoli games / 57 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 41% | Draw 36% | Lecce 24%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Lecce 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lecce's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 30% | Lecce 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 41% | Draw 36% | Lecce 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Empoli 1.00 / Lecce 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.681 / def 0.892 | Lecce attack 0.593 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Empoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Lecce xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Lecce kick off?
Empoli vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lecce?
Empoli 1 - 3 Lecce.
Where is Empoli vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Lecce part of?
Empoli vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 41% chance of winning, Lecce a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Empoli and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lecce?
Record (5 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 3 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Empoli and Lecce in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Lecce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.59x) against Empoli's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
41%
2.46
36%
2.81
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.70
0.70
Lecce xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Empoli and 0.70 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 17D 27L from 57 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 26L across 57 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Empoli against 0.96 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 6W 9D 13L from 28 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 3W 9D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.75 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Lecce in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 17D 27L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Lecce have gone 12W 19D 26L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Lecce away?
Empoli's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.96 PPG; Lecce away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Lecce have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Empoli) and 36% (Lecce) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Empoli and 32% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 61% of games; Lecce in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Empoli's recent matches and 36% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Empoli's recent games and 32% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Empoli 1-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.00 xG and Lecce 0.70 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Lecce attack 0.59 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 41% | Draw 36% | Lecce 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Lecce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, Lecce 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.98 PPG, Lecce 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.