Empoli 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Hellas Verona at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hellas Verona — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Empoli have won 0, Hellas Verona 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 66% and Hellas Verona 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Empoli 59% | Hellas Verona 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.69 xG and Hellas Verona 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.104 / defence 1.760 | Hellas Verona attack 1.026 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.302. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Empoli games / 29 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 51%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Hellas Verona 1.96. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 90% | Hellas Verona 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Empoli 1.69 / Hellas Verona 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.104 / def 1.760 | Hellas Verona attack 1.026 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Hellas Verona xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Empoli 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Empoli vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Hellas Verona part of?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 26% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Empoli and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.10) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
26%
3.80
22%
4.50
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Empoli xG
Total xG
4.04
2.35
Hellas Verona xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.00
Clean Sheet
10%
10.49
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
3%
39.82
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Empoli and 2.35 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 8D 13L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 11W 8D 10L from 29 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.10 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.79 PPG from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 6D 5L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.86 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 79%.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Hellas Verona away?
Hellas Verona's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.79 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 86%, Hellas Verona at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Empoli and 57% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Empoli's games and 79% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Empoli's matches and 57% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Empoli and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.69 xG and Hellas Verona 2.35 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.10 / defence 1.76 against Hellas Verona attack 1.03 / defence 1.41, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 26% | Draw 22% | Hellas Verona 51%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 59%, Hellas Verona 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.10 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.64 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.