Empoli 4-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Empoli welcome Bologna to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 0W 0D 3L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.20 PPG versus Bologna's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Bologna in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus Bologna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 60% | Bologna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.28 xG and Bologna 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.704 / defence 1.548 | Bologna attack 0.665 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.645. Empoli's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Empoli games / 5 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 24% | Bologna 47%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 2.13. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 67% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 24% | Bologna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Empoli 1.28 / Bologna 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.704 / def 1.548 | Bologna attack 0.665 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bologna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Bologna kick off?
Empoli vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Empoli 4 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Empoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Bologna part of?
Empoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Bologna a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Empoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Bologna in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
29%
3.46
24%
4.19
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.97
1.69
Bologna xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
5%
18.80
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Empoli and 1.69 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna in 60%.
Defensively: Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Bologna have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Empoli or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Bologna?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 40%, Bologna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Empoli and 60% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bologna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Empoli's recent matches and 60% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Empoli's matches and 60% of Bologna's.
Do Empoli and Bologna tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bologna in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Bologna 4-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.28 xG and Bologna 1.69 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.70 / defence 1.55 against Bologna attack 0.67 / defence 1.48, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 24% | Bologna 47%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 60%, Bologna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.