Cagliari 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Juventus (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cagliari face Juventus.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cagliari and Juventus meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cagliari's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Juventus (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Juventus have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Juventus have the stronger record — 3 wins to Cagliari's 0, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Cagliari 1–1 Juventus — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Juventus have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Juventus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Juventus 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Juventus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.25 xG and Juventus 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.039 / defence 1.161 | Juventus attack 1.140 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.236. Data: built from Cagliari's last 63 games and Juventus's last 63.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 28% | Draw 28% | Juventus 45%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.64 | Draw 3.60 | Juventus 2.24. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Juventus's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 50% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 70% (last 10 away games).

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