Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cagliari. A 0.60 PPG lead over Hellas Verona (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 52% versus Hellas Verona 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Hellas Verona 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.32 xG and Hellas Verona 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.939 / defence 0.979 | Hellas Verona attack 0.790 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.166. Data: 60 Cagliari games / 60 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 46% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 26%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 3.85. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 40% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 46% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Cagliari 1.32 / Hellas Verona 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.939 / def 0.979 | Hellas Verona attack 0.790 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hellas Verona xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Cagliari 4 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona part of?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 46% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cagliari and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 3 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.79x) against Cagliari's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.55
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.22
0.90
Hellas Verona xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.90 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 16D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.85 PPG from 60 outings (12W 15D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Cagliari against 0.85 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cagliari's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.87 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 33L in their last 60 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Hellas Verona away?
Cagliari's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.17 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 45%, Hellas Verona 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 45% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 34% of games; Hellas Verona in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cagliari's recent matches and 48% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 45% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 4-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.32 xG and Hellas Verona 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Hellas Verona attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 46% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 26%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Hellas Verona 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.