Cagliari 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cagliari at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Hellas Verona.

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Full Analysis

Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cagliari have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cagliari's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hellas Verona's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hellas Verona away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Cagliari against 0.60 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hellas Verona in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Hellas Verona edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Cagliari 1–1 Hellas Verona — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 63% versus Hellas Verona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 55% | Hellas Verona 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.951 / defence 1.335 | Hellas Verona attack 0.859 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.322. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.350 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 51 games and Hellas Verona's last 51.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 34%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.35 | Draw 4.21 | Hellas Verona 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 60% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 70% (last 10 away games).

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