Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Sassuolo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 4–2 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 53% versus Sassuolo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Sassuolo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.32 xG and Sassuolo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.043 / defence 0.927 | Sassuolo attack 1.061 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.119. Data: 53 Bologna games / 16 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 31%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sassuolo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Sassuolo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bologna 1.32 / Sassuolo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.043 / def 0.927 | Sassuolo attack 1.061 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sassuolo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bologna vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 December 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna 1 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Bologna vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Sassuolo part of?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bologna's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.06x) against Bologna's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 53/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.66
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Sassuolo xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bologna and 1.10 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 23W 18D 12L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 31W 9D 13L from 53 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Bologna against 1.92 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (14W 8D 4L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 14W 6D 6L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.85 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 18D 12L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 31W 9D 13L in their last 53 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sassuolo away?
Bologna's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.92 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Bologna or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 54%, Sassuolo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 58% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sassuolo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bologna's games and 58% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 58% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Sassuolo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.32 xG and Sassuolo 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Sassuolo attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 31%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Sassuolo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.64 PPG, Sassuolo 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.