Bologna 2-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lecce have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 0.70 PPG versus Lecce's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lecce in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lecce trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Lecce 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Lecce 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.17 xG and Lecce 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.816 / defence 1.027 | Lecce attack 0.825 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.184. Data: 48 Bologna games / 10 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 33% | Lecce 29%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Lecce 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 70% | Lecce 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 33% | Lecce 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.17 / Lecce 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.816 / def 1.027 | Lecce attack 0.825 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lecce xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Bologna 2 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Bologna vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Lecce a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Lecce in?
Bologna (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Lecce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.67
33%
3.01
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Lecce xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bologna and 1.00 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 13W 14D 21L from 48 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 9L across 48 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 7W 10D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.42 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Lecce have gone 20W 19D 9L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.42 PPG; Lecce away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lecce in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Lecce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 38% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 29% of games; Lecce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 54% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.17 xG and Lecce 1.00 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecce landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 33% | Lecce 29%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Lecce 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.