Bologna 2-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bologna's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bologna 1W, Hellas Verona 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Hellas Verona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Hellas Verona 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.78 xG and Hellas Verona 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.284 / defence 0.699 | Hellas Verona attack 0.795 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.135. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Bologna games / 63 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 64% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 11%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 64% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Bologna 1.78 / Hellas Verona 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.284 / def 0.699 | Hellas Verona attack 0.795 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Bologna (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Hellas Verona xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Bologna 2 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Bologna vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Hellas Verona part of?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 64% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bologna and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.28x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.80x) against Bologna's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
64%
1.57
25%
3.96
11%
9.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.63
Hellas Verona xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
9.02
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
53.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bologna and 0.63 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 63 games, going 26W 21D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.86 PPG from 63 outings (12W 18D 33L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 17W 11D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.56 points per game from 32 outings (3W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.87 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 26W 21D 16L in their last 63 games (1.57 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 18D 33L in their last 63 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Hellas Verona away?
Bologna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.94 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Bologna) and 38% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.78 xG and Hellas Verona 0.63 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 0.70 against Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 64% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 11%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Hellas Verona 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.