Atalanta 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atalanta at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Juventus travel to Gewiss Stadium to take on Atalanta. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Atalanta are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atalanta, 1 for Juventus and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Juventus trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Juventus 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 65% | Juventus 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.88 xG and Juventus 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.635 / defence 1.029 | Juventus attack 1.147 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.303. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.635 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Atalanta games / 57 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 24% | Juventus 31%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Juventus 3.23. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 80% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 24% | Juventus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Atalanta 1.88 / Juventus 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.635 / def 1.029 | Juventus attack 1.147 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Juventus xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Juventus kick off?
Atalanta vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Atalanta vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Juventus part of?
Atalanta vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of winning, Juventus a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Atalanta and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Juventus?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 4 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Atalanta and Juventus in?
Atalanta (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Juventus (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.64x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.13
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.42
1.54
Juventus xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
5%
21.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.54 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta's recent record stands at 34W 9D 14L from 57 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 26W 26D 5L across 57 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.95 PPG, Juventus on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 20W 2D 5L from 27 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 11W 12D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.49 scored and 0.82 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Juventus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Juventus in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Juventus in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 34W 9D 14L in their last 57 games (1.95 PPG), while Juventus have gone 26W 26D 5L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Juventus away?
Atalanta's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.30 PPG; Juventus away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Juventus in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Juventus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2025, when Atalanta won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atalanta
6
Draws
2
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 2, Juventus have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Juventus.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 59%, Juventus 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Atalanta and 48% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Juventus in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Atalanta's games and 52% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Atalanta's matches and 48% of Juventus's.
Do Atalanta and Juventus tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Juventus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Atalanta and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.88 xG and Juventus 1.54 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.64 / defence 1.03 against Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 45% | Draw 24% | Juventus 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 65%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.95 PPG, Juventus 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.