Atalanta 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's home record at Gewiss Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atalanta, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fiorentina trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 60% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 53% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.43 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.062 / defence 1.018 | Fiorentina attack 0.792 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.153. Data: 45 Atalanta games / 45 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 22%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Fiorentina 4.55. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Atalanta 70% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 46% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Atalanta 1.43 / Fiorentina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.062 / def 1.018 | Fiorentina attack 0.792 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 46% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Atalanta 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.18
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.36
0.93
Fiorentina xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
5%
18.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.93 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 21W 13D 11L from 45 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 16L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.69 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 5W 10D 7L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.69 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.47 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 21W 13D 11L in their last 45 games (1.69 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 21W 8D 16L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.14 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atalanta at 73%, Fiorentina at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Atalanta) and 54% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Atalanta's games and 64% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Atalanta's matches and 54% of Fiorentina's.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.43 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Fiorentina attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 46% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 22%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 53%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.69 PPG, Fiorentina 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.