AS Roma 2-4 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.90 PPG clear of AS Roma in recent Serie A fixtures (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Inter, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.12 xG and Inter 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.317 / defence 0.820 | Inter attack 1.616 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.095. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter's defence strength of 0.605 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.616 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 AS Roma games / 60 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 29% | Inter 43%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Inter 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 50% | Inter 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 29% | Inter 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Roma 1.12 / Inter 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.317 / def 0.820 | Inter attack 1.616 / def 0.605 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Inter (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Inter xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Inter kick off?
AS Roma vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma 2 - 4 Inter.
Where is AS Roma vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Inter part of?
AS Roma vs Inter is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 28% chance of winning, Inter a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Roma and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 4W.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.32) and Inter's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.62x) against AS Roma's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
28%
3.59
29%
3.44
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
Inter xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.45 for Inter, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 28W 14D 18L from 60 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 41W 6D 13L across 60 games — 2.15 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Roma heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 18W 6D 6L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 18W 5D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.03 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Inter in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Inter have gone 41W 6D 13L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Inter away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 1.97 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 43%, Inter 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AS Roma) and 60% (Inter).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Inter in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AS Roma's recent games and 60% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Inter tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Inter in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 2-4 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.12 xG and Inter 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Inter attack 1.62 / defence 0.60, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 28% | Draw 29% | Inter 43%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Inter 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.63. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.