AS Roma 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in AS Roma's favour (1.60 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Genoa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Genoa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.82 xG and Genoa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.992 / defence 1.030 | Genoa attack 0.606 / defence 1.593. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.501. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.593 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 AS Roma games / 23 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Genoa 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 30% | Genoa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Genoa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG AS Roma 1.82 / Genoa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.992 / def 1.030 | Genoa attack 0.606 / def 1.593 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Genoa xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Genoa kick off?
AS Roma vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is AS Roma vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Genoa part of?
AS Roma vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Genoa a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 0.99x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.61x) against AS Roma's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.92
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.76
0.94
Genoa xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
34.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.94 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 12W 2D 9L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 1W 10D 12L from 23 games, 0.57 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 5D 6L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.87 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 12W 2D 9L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 10D 12L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Genoa away?
AS Roma's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.92 PPG; Genoa away: 0.67 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Genoa in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Genoa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 42%, Genoa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 58% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Genoa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AS Roma's recent games and 58% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Genoa tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Genoa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AS Roma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.82 xG and Genoa 0.94 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Genoa attack 0.61 / defence 1.59, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Genoa 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Genoa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.