AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (AS Roma) versus 1.70 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
AS Roma hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Cagliari, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Cagliari winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 39% versus Cagliari 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 33% | Cagliari 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.091 / defence 0.665 | Cagliari attack 0.950 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.210. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 AS Roma games / 61 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 30% | Cagliari 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG AS Roma 1.56 / Cagliari 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.091 / def 0.665 | Cagliari attack 0.950 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cagliari xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 56% chance of winning, Cagliari a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Record (7 meetings): AS Roma 5W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Cagliari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.90
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.33
0.76
Cagliari xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
26.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.76 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 61 games, going 34W 10D 17L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (16W 16D 29L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 20W 3D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 34W 10D 17L in their last 61 games (1.84 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.10 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.90 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cagliari in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Cagliari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, Cagliari 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AS Roma) and 53% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cagliari in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AS Roma's recent matches and 60% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AS Roma's recent games and 53% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.67 against Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 33%, Cagliari 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.