Waterford 1-2 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host UCD at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford at Richmond Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waterford are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.24 xG and UCD 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.972 / defence 1.256 | UCD attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.120. Data: 36 Waterford games / 0 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 37% | Draw 27% | UCD 35%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | UCD 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waterford at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Finals | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 37% | Draw 27% | UCD 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.24 / UCD 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.972 / def 1.256 | UCD attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Waterford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.20
UCD xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs UCD kick off?
Waterford vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in Waterford vs UCD?
Waterford 1 - 2 UCD.
Where is Waterford vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is Waterford vs UCD part of?
Waterford vs UCD is a Finals fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 37% chance of winning, UCD a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and UCD?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and UCD in?
Waterford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Waterford home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.97) and UCD's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.65
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.44
1.20
UCD xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waterford and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Waterford and 1.20 for UCD, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
UCD
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Waterford
0
Draws
2
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and UCD?
From 2 meetings on record, Waterford have won 0, UCD have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2022, when UCD 1-0 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and UCD?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Waterford 1-2 at Richmond Park, Finals, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.24 xG and UCD 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. UCD outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against UCD attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 37% | Draw 27% | UCD 35%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual UCD win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.