Waterford 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 36%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 1 as Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Shelbourne have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Waterford's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Shelbourne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.24 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.982 / defence 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 1.104 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.022. Data: 36 Waterford games / 36 Shelbourne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Shelbourne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waterford at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | Shelbourne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Waterford 1.24 / Shelbourne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.982 / def 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 1.104 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Waterford (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shelbourne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 36% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Record (7 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 5W.
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.47
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Shelbourne xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Waterford and 1.23 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 11D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 72 outings (32W 26D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 13W 6D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.66 points per game from 35 outings (15W 13D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Shelbourne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Shelbourne 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 34%; Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 51% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and Shelbourne finished level at 1-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.24 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.