UCD 0-4 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
UCD Bowl plays host to UCD versus Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 23). Kick-off: Friday 7 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, UCD have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — UCD are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne have the stronger record — 3 wins to UCD's 0, with 3 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended UCD 0–1 Shelbourne — a Shelbourne win.
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
UCD goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Shelbourne 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.72 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.750 / defence 1.316 | Shelbourne attack 0.886 / defence 0.638. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.071. UCD's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Shelbourne bring a tight defence (rating 0.638, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling UCD's projected output down. UCD's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 58 games and Shelbourne's last 58.
Result probabilities: UCD 21% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 49%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.69 | Draw 3.37 | Shelbourne 2.04. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 23 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 7 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 21% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG UCD 0.72 / Shelbourne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.750 / def 1.316 | Shelbourne attack 0.886 / def 0.638 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shelbourne xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does UCD vs Shelbourne kick off?
UCD vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 7 July 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
UCD 0 - 4 Shelbourne.
Where is UCD vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Shelbourne part of?
UCD vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 23) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 21% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both UCD and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will UCD vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
UCD's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.89x) against UCD's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 58 games and Shelbourne's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
21%
4.69
30%
3.37
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
UCD xG
Total xG
1.97
1.25
Shelbourne xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for UCD and 1.25 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD's recent record stands at 9W 11D 38L from 58 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 20L across 58 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shelbourne by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, UCD have managed 6W 6D 16L from their last 28 home games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 7W 10D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.05 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
UCD (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are UCD and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 11D 38L in their last 58 games (0.66 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 17W 21D 20L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.86 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
Have UCD or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won UCD 0-4 Shelbourne on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 0, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2023: Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 46%, Shelbourne 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (UCD) and 36% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 36%; UCD have failed to score in 46% of games; Shelbourne in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in UCD and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of UCD's recent matches and 43% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are UCD and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of UCD's recent games and 36% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of UCD's recent matches and 46% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shelbourne run riot with a 0-4 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 0-4 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.72 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.75 / defence 1.32 against Shelbourne attack 0.89 / defence 0.64, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 21% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 49%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 53%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.