UCD 3-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at UCD Bowl, UCD have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: UCD 0W, Dundalk 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Dundalk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Dundalk 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 52% | Dundalk 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.85 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.698 / defence 1.423 | Dundalk attack 0.755 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.983. UCD's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 UCD games / 65 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 28% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 40%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Dundalk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: UCD 60% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 28% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG UCD 0.85 / Dundalk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.698 / def 1.423 | Dundalk attack 0.755 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Dundalk xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Dundalk kick off?
UCD vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 September 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Dundalk?
UCD 3 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is UCD vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Dundalk part of?
UCD vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 28% chance of winning, Dundalk a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both UCD and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are UCD and Dundalk in?
UCD (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.70x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.76x) against UCD's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 28/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
28%
3.51
32%
3.13
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
UCD xG
Total xG
1.90
1.06
Dundalk xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are UCD and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for UCD and 1.06 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD's recent record stands at 4W 7D 18L from 29 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 5L across 29 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, UCD have managed 1W 5D 8L from 14 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 6D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.28 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Dundalk in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 4W 7D 18L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 11D 5L in their last 29 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.57 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.07 PPG.
Have UCD or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Dundalk in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 50%, Dundalk 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for UCD and 21% for Dundalk.
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 36%; UCD have failed to score in 50% of games; Dundalk in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of UCD's recent matches and 29% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of UCD's recent games and 21% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as UCD defy the odds to beat Dundalk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Dundalk 3-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.85 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. UCD beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.70 / defence 1.42 against Dundalk attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 28% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 40%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual UCD win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 52%, Dundalk 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.66. Form was overturned, with UCD winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. UCD (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.