St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 68%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 20 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome UCD to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 June 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier Division matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. UCD's 3.00 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for UCD and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.08 xG and UCD 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.971 / defence 0.984 | UCD attack 0.685 / defence 1.630. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.156. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.630 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 St Patrick's Athl. games / 18 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 20% | UCD 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | UCD 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 68% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 20% | UCD 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.08 / UCD 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.971 / def 0.984 | UCD attack 0.685 / def 1.630 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.78
UCD xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 UCD.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 68% chance of winning, UCD a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 0 | UCD 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.11
13%
7.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.86
0.78
UCD xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
7.73
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
2%
61.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.78 for UCD, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours UCD by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St Patrick's Athl. heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. UCD's attacking output running into St Patrick's Athl.'s solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have St Patrick's Athl. or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, UCD in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting UCD specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
St Patrick's Athl.
0
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, UCD have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 100% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 100% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and UCD tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out UCD 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.08 xG and UCD 0.78 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against UCD attack 0.69 / defence 1.63, drawn from 55/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 20% | UCD 13%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 0%, UCD 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with St Patrick's Athl. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St Patrick's Athl. scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.