St Patrick's Athl. 4-3 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sligo Rovers stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Sligo Rovers 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 Sligo Rovers — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Sligo Rovers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Sligo Rovers 49%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while St Patrick's Athl. recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.927 / defence 0.868 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.901 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.956. Sligo Rovers's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 38 games and Sligo Rovers's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 18%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 3.98 | Sligo Rovers 5.68. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Sligo Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 70% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (St Patrick's Athl. 38 games, Sligo Rovers 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 / Sligo Rovers 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.927 / def 0.868 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.901 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 3 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 38 games and Sligo Rovers's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.98
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.33
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
4%
27.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.75 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 36W 13D 23L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 23W 17D 32L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 36 home games (21W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 9D 20L from their last 36 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.83 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
1
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, Sligo Rovers have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 73% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Sligo Rovers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 61% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 53% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 61% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 81% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 4-3 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 18%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.