St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of St Patrick's Athl.: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Dundalk, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dundalk trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 33% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG and Dundalk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.072 / defence 0.933 | Dundalk attack 1.024 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.016. Data: 38 St Patrick's Athl. games / 3 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Dundalk 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 / Dundalk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.072 / def 0.933 | Dundalk attack 1.024 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dundalk xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance of winning, Dundalk a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 4W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.07x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.84
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.32
0.97
Dundalk xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.97 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 13W 13D 10L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 20L across 36 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 8W 8D 2L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 1W 6D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 13W 13D 10L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.78 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dundalk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 33%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 33% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 67% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 4-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG and Dundalk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Dundalk attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 23%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.