St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 1). Kick-off is Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Drogheda United have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Drogheda United's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, St Patrick's Athl. have won 1, Drogheda United 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended St Patrick's Athl. 4–1 Drogheda United — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Drogheda United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Drogheda United 56%). Note also that Drogheda United surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while St Patrick's Athl. recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.114 / defence 0.964 | Drogheda United attack 0.956 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.025. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 36 games and Drogheda United's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.02 | Draw 3.44 | Drogheda United 4.66. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 70% (last 10 home games) | Drogheda United 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (St Patrick's Athl. 36 games, Drogheda United 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 1 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 / Drogheda United 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.114 / def 0.964 | Drogheda United attack 0.956 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Drogheda United xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 14 February 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 1) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 49% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.11) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 36 games and Drogheda United's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.44
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.48
0.94
Drogheda United xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.94 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 13D 23L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.07 PPG from 72 outings (18W 23D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 21W 5D 10L across their last 36 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 36 away games (7W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Drogheda United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 18W 23D 31L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.89 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Drogheda United.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Drogheda United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 61% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Drogheda United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 61% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 61% of Drogheda United's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 72% of Drogheda United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 1, as St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Drogheda United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Drogheda United attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.