St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 4 for Derry City and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Derry City trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 36% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.199 / defence 0.660 | Derry City attack 0.864 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 St Patrick's Athl. games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 30% | Derry City 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Derry City 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 30% | Derry City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 / Derry City 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.199 / def 0.660 | Derry City attack 0.864 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Derry City xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance of winning, Derry City a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Record (9 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 4W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.20) and Derry City's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
57%
1.76
30%
3.31
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.38
0.72
Derry City xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
40.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.72 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 20D 16L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.51 PPG from 61 outings (24W 20D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.56 PPG, Derry City on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 17W 9D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 25W 20D 16L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while Derry City have gone 24W 20D 17L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.00 PPG; Derry City away: 1.30 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Derry City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 37%, Derry City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 43% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 27% of games; Derry City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 57% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 43% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derry City in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 xG and Derry City 0.72 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.20 / defence 0.66 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 30% | Derry City 13%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Derry City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 PPG, Derry City 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.