St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derry City stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG, Derry City 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.066 / defence 0.884 | Derry City attack 1.050 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 0.916. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 52 games and Derry City's last 52.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.71 | Draw 2.84 | Derry City 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 / Derry City 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.066 / def 0.884 | Derry City attack 1.050 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.126 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Derry City xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 16) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance of winning, Derry City a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.07) and Derry City's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 52 games and Derry City's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
37%
2.71
35%
2.84
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.87
0.85
Derry City xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.85 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 12D 23L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.82 PPG from 72 outings (36W 23D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Derry City on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 20W 6D 10L across their last 36 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.86 points per game from their last 36 away games (19W 10D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Derry City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 69% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.