Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sligo Rovers face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Showgrounds plays host to Sligo Rovers versus Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 7). Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Shelbourne have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sligo Rovers, 0 for Shelbourne and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Sligo Rovers 0–0 Shelbourne — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 43% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 49% | Shelbourne 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sligo Rovers surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Shelbourne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.989 / defence 1.165 | Shelbourne attack 0.971 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.023. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 42 games and Shelbourne's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 38%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.13 | Draw 3.38 | Shelbourne 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.03 / Shelbourne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.989 / def 1.165 | Shelbourne attack 0.971 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shelbourne xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 32% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.97x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 42 games and Shelbourne's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.38
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.19
1.16
Shelbourne xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.16 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 23W 17D 32L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (32W 27D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 8D 12L across their last 36 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 36 away games (14W 14D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shelbourne away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.56 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers on 9 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 33%, Shelbourne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Sligo Rovers and 25% for Shelbourne.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shelbourne in 44%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 44% of games; Shelbourne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 39% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 25% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 58% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Sligo Rovers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 1-2 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Shelbourne attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 38%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.