Sligo Rovers 0-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 7W 1D 2L at The Showgrounds — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Sligo Rovers, 1.40 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 47% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 40% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.06 xG and Dundalk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.978 | Dundalk attack 0.867 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.215. Dundalk's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Sligo Rovers games / 49 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 34%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Dundalk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.06 / Dundalk 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.018 / def 0.978 | Dundalk attack 0.867 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dundalk xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Dundalk a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.02x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.87x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.33
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.09
1.03
Dundalk xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.03 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 30W 19D 23L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.54 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.69 PPG from 36 outings (17W 10D 9L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 9W 14D 13L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 23L in their last 72 games (1.51 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.69 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 47%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.06 xG and Dundalk 1.03 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Dundalk attack 0.87 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 34%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 40%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.51 PPG, Dundalk 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.