Shelbourne 1-1 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shelbourne face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cork City travel to Tolka Park to take on Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shelbourne at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cork City — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Cork City have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Shelbourne are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Shelbourne hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Cork City and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Shelbourne 2–1 Cork City — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data gives Shelbourne an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cork City in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 49% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 32% | Cork City 54%). Note also that Cork City surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.68 xG and Cork City 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.024 / defence 1.008 | Cork City attack 0.837 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.050. Cork City's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 41 games and Cork City's last 4. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 55% | Draw 26% | Cork City 19%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.82 | Draw 3.78 | Cork City 5.38. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 50% (last 10 home games) | Cork City 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shelbourne 41 games, Cork City 4) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 55% | Draw 26% | Cork City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Shelbourne 1.68 / Cork City 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.024 / def 1.008 | Cork City attack 0.837 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cork City xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Cork City FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Cork City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Cork City?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Cork City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Cork City part of?
Shelbourne vs Cork City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 55% chance of winning, Cork City a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shelbourne and Cork City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Shelbourne vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 41 games and Cork City's last 4, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.78
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.56
0.89
Cork City xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
3%
28.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Cork City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.89 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 18W 12D 7L from 37 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 22L across 37 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shelbourne by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 9W 6D 3L from their last 18 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 2W 3D 13L across their last 18 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Cork City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Cork City Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Cork City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Cork City away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.83 PPG; Cork City away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cork City in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 13 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shelbourne have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
0
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Cork City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Cork City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 6, Cork City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Cork City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 October 2025: Cork City 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Cork City?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, Cork City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 72% (Cork City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cork City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Cork City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Cork City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Cork City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Shelbourne's matches and 72% of Cork City's.
Do Shelbourne and Cork City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 83% of Cork City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Cork City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Cork City finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.68 xG and Cork City 0.89 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Cork City attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 41/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 55% | Draw 26% | Cork City 19%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 32%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.