Shamrock Rovers 3-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 58%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shamrock Rovers vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and UCD meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shamrock Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. UCD are 0.80 PPG clear of Shamrock Rovers in recent Premier Division fixtures (3.00 vs 2.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, UCD in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.76 xG and UCD 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.113 / defence 0.869 | UCD attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.228. Data: 36 Shamrock Rovers games / 0 UCD games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 58% | Draw 23% | UCD 19%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | UCD 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 58% | Draw 23% | UCD 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.76 / UCD 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.113 / def 0.869 | UCD attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.91
UCD xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs UCD kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs UCD kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs UCD?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 0 UCD.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs UCD part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs UCD is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 58% chance of winning, UCD a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and UCD?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and UCD in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.11x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.85x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 36/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.29
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.67
0.91
UCD xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
30.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.91 for UCD, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, UCD sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 3.00 for UCD. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shamrock Rovers's scoring rate against UCD's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and UCD in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 9 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 7, UCD have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2023, when UCD 0-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and UCD?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play UCD?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 100% of UCD's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 100% of UCD's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and UCD tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 3-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat UCD 3-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.76 xG and UCD 0.91 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. UCD landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against UCD attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 58% | Draw 23% | UCD 19%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 100%, UCD 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 3.00 PPG, UCD 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.