Shamrock Rovers 3-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 2.10 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 49% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Dundalk 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.05 xG and Dundalk 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / defence 0.764 | Dundalk attack 0.832 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.049. Dundalk's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Shamrock Rovers games / 62 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 22%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Dundalk 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.05 / Dundalk 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / def 0.764 | Dundalk attack 0.832 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Dundalk xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.83x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.89
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.71
0.67
Dundalk xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.67 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 61 games, going 40W 11D 10L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.57 PPG from 61 outings (26W 18D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 22W 7D 1L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (7W 13D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 40W 11D 10L in their last 61 games (2.15 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 26W 18D 17L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.43 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Dundalk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 57%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Shamrock Rovers) and 33% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dundalk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 33% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 3-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.05 xG and Dundalk 0.67 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.76 against Dundalk attack 0.83 / defence 0.73, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 22%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Dundalk 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.