Shamrock Rovers 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shamrock Rovers at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derry City's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Derry City away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Derry City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.025 / defence 0.837 | Derry City attack 0.845 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.089. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 41 games and Derry City's last 42.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 31% | Derry City 22%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.15 | Draw 3.18 | Derry City 4.51. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 31% | Derry City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.24 / Derry City 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.025 / def 0.837 | Derry City attack 0.845 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Derry City xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 46% chance of winning, Derry City a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.02) and Derry City's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.84x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 41 games and Derry City's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
46%
2.15
31%
3.18
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.01
0.77
Derry City xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.77 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 22D 13L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (32W 24D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.67 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 22W 9D 5L across their last 36 home games, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 36 away games (14W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.46 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 games (1.85 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.08 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Derry City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 50%, Derry City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 39% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Derry City in 44%; Derry City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shamrock Rovers and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 39% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 58% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shamrock Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Shamrock Rovers and Derry City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Derry City attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 31% | Derry City 22%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.