Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Dundalk travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record at Finn Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dundalk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Dundalk's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Dundalk, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Finn Harps.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Dundalk winning.
It is worth noting that Dundalk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 56% versus Dundalk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 62% | Dundalk 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.29 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.927 / defence 1.169 | Dundalk attack 0.813 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.063. Data: 68 Finn Harps games / 68 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Finn Harps 40% | Dundalk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Finn Harps 1.29 / Dundalk 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.927 / def 1.169 | Dundalk attack 0.813 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Dundalk kick off?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Finn Harps 1 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Finn Harps vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Dundalk part of?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Finn Harps and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 4W.
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.57
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.30
1.01
Dundalk xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.01 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 18D 35L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 27W 20D 21L from 68 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.00 PPG from 34 outings (8W 10D 16L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 7W 14D 13L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.26 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 15W 18D 35L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 27W 20D 21L in their last 68 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.00 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dundalk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 53%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Finn Harps) and 35% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 35% of games; Dundalk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Finn Harps's recent games and 35% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Dundalk tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 1-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.29 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 62%, Dundalk 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.