Dundalk 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 45%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 2W 1D 7L at Oriel Park — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Shelbourne are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Shelbourne have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Dundalk's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Dundalk winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Shelbourne 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Shelbourne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.65 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.170 / defence 0.902 | Shelbourne attack 1.203 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.153. Shelbourne have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Dundalk games / 48 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 28%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 3.57. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 20% | Shelbourne 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dundalk 1.65 / Shelbourne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.170 / def 0.902 | Shelbourne attack 1.203 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shelbourne xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 45% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Record (8 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 3 | Shelbourne 4W.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.17x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.20x) against Dundalk's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 13/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.70
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.90
1.25
Shelbourne xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.25 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 5W 11D 20L from 36 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 7L across 36 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shelbourne by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 4W 5D 9L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 7W 8D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.33 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 15W 14D 7L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 11%, Shelbourne 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 39% for Shelbourne.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 61% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.65 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Shelbourne attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 13/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 45% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 28%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Shelbourne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.