Dundalk 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Dundalk's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Derry City 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 48% | Derry City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.55 xG and Derry City 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.349 / defence 0.667 | Derry City attack 1.260 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.102. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 0.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.667 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Dundalk games / 59 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 26% | Derry City 22%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 4.55. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | Derry City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 26% | Derry City 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Dundalk 1.55 / Derry City 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.349 / def 0.667 | Derry City attack 1.260 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Derry City xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 52% chance of winning, Derry City a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.35) and Derry City's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.26x) against Dundalk's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.83
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.47
0.93
Derry City xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.93 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 25W 17D 17L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City's form line: 26W 19D 14L from 59 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Dundalk against 1.64 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (19W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derry City have gone 16W 6D 8L from 30 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.51 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 25W 17D 17L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Derry City have gone 26W 19D 14L in their last 59 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.03 PPG; Derry City away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derry City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 57%, Derry City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Dundalk) and 53% (Derry City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dundalk's games and 60% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dundalk's matches and 53% of Derry City's.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Derry City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.55 xG and Derry City 0.93 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.35 / defence 0.67 against Derry City attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 52% | Draw 26% | Derry City 22%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 48%, Derry City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.56 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.