Dundalk 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 18 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Dundalk, 1.60 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derry City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 64% and Derry City 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Derry City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.43 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.003 / defence 0.989 | Derry City attack 1.077 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.097. Data: 36 Dundalk games / 36 Derry City games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Derry City 31%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Derry City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Derry City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Dundalk 1.43 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.003 / def 0.989 | Derry City attack 1.077 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 43% chance of winning, Derry City a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.00) and Derry City's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.08x) against Dundalk's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.60
1.17
Derry City xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dundalk against 1.50 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (9W 2D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.36 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Derry City in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Derry City away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Derry City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 50% (Derry City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 61% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Derry City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 1, as Dundalk and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.43 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Derry City attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Derry City 31%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, Derry City 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.