Dundalk 1-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Dundalk, 3 for Bohemians and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Bohemians 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.107 / defence 0.967 | Bohemians attack 0.945 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.184. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Dundalk games / 51 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 20% | Bohemians 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Dundalk 1.31 / Bohemians 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.107 / def 0.967 | Bohemians attack 0.945 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 1 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 40% chance of winning, Bohemians a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Record (8 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.11) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.94x) against Dundalk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 15/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.20
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.39
1.08
Bohemians xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.08 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 11D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bohemians's form line: 16W 6D 14L from 36 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 6W 4D 8L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bohemians in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 44% (Bohemians) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 50% for Bohemians.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Bohemians in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 1-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 15/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 40% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 29%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.