Drogheda United 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 35%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's home record at Weavers Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Drogheda United's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, St Patrick's Athl. have the better historical record — 3 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Drogheda United.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
It is worth noting that St Patrick's Athl. have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.10 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.864 / defence 0.986 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.117. Data: 46 Drogheda United games / 47 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 35% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 35% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Drogheda United 1.10 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.864 / def 0.986 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 1 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (7 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 4 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
35%
2.83
33%
2.99
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.13
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.02 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 28D 24L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Drogheda United on 1.22 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (14W 14D 8L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 11W 11D 14L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 1-3 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.10 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 35% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.22 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.