Drogheda United 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Head in the Game Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 15 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Head in the Game Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Head in the Game Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Drogheda United, 1.40 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 50% versus Bohemians 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 43% | Bohemians 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.20 xG and Bohemians 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / defence 0.972 | Bohemians attack 1.103 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.066. Data: 58 Drogheda United games / 58 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 40% | Bohemians 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Drogheda United 1.20 / Bohemians 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / def 0.972 | Bohemians attack 1.103 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 July 2022 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.10x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.34
1.14
Bohemians xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.14 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 18W 15D 25L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 21W 18D 19L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.40 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 8W 10D 11L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.55 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 67%.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.48 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 45%, Bohemians 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Drogheda United) and 41% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Drogheda United's games and 66% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Drogheda United's recent games and 41% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.20 xG and Bohemians 1.14 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 35%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 43%, Bohemians 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.19 PPG, Bohemians 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.