Derry City 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Shelbourne's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 47% | Shelbourne 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.61 xG and Shelbourne 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.098 / defence 0.694 | Shelbourne attack 0.916 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.076. Derry City's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Derry City games / 32 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 60% | Draw 25% | Shelbourne 16%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Shelbourne 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 40% | Shelbourne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 60% | Draw 25% | Shelbourne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Derry City 1.61 / Shelbourne 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.098 / def 0.694 | Shelbourne attack 0.916 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Derry City (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Shelbourne xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Derry City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 October 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Derry City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shelbourne part of?
Derry City vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 60% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Derry City and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in?
Derry City (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.10) and Shelbourne's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.92x) against Derry City's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 68/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.06
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.30
0.69
Shelbourne xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
3%
32.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Derry City and 0.69 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derry City come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 10D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Derry City's home form reads 8W 6D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 18W 10D 4L in their last 32 games (2.00 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shelbourne away?
Derry City's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.88 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Derry City
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 50%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 38% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shelbourne in 31%; Shelbourne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derry City's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 38% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Derry City and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.61 xG and Shelbourne 0.69 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.10 / defence 0.69 against Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 60% | Draw 25% | Shelbourne 16%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 47%, Shelbourne 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.