Derry City 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derry City face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Monday 6 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Derry City (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derry City's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Derry City's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) — Derry City have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Shelbourne in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derry City 40% | Shelbourne 36%). Note also that Shelbourne surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.501 / defence 1.173 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 0.930. Derry City carry an above-average attack rating of 1.501 — their 1.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Derry City's last 50 games and Shelbourne's last 50.
Result probabilities: Derry City 43% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.34 | Draw 3.63 | Shelbourne 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derry City's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derry City 30% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 43% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Derry City 1.44 / Shelbourne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.501 / def 1.173 | Shelbourne attack 1.064 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.117 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Derry City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shelbourne xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derry City vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Derry City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Derry City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Derry City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shelbourne part of?
Derry City vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 43% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derry City and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derry City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.50) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.06x) against Derry City's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Derry City's last 50 games and Shelbourne's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.63
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
Shelbourne xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derry City vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Derry City and 1.16 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derry City come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 23D 13L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.40 PPG from 72 outings (25W 26D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Derry City's home form reads 17W 13D 6L across their last 36 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.28 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Derry City (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derry City
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Derry City vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 games (1.82 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shelbourne away?
Derry City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.78 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Derry City and Shelbourne, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Derry City vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Derry City have won 4, Shelbourne have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shelbourne?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 36%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 33% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Shelbourne in 39%; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derry City vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derry City and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derry City's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derry City and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 33% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Derry City's recent matches and 53% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Derry City and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.50 / defence 1.17 against Shelbourne attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 43% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 30%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.