Cork City 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Derry City travel to Turners Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cork City stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cork City's home record at Turners Cross: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Cork City.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cork City 69% and Derry City 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 49% | Derry City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.15 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.855 / defence 1.171 | Derry City attack 1.238 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 0.968. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Cork City games / 71 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 30% | Draw 28% | Derry City 42%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 60% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 30% | Draw 28% | Derry City 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cork City 1.15 / Derry City 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.855 / def 1.171 | Derry City attack 1.238 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.335 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Derry City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Derry City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Derry City kick off?
Cork City vs Derry City kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Cork City 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Cork City vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Derry City part of?
Cork City vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 30% chance of winning, Derry City a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cork City and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
Record (7 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 1 | Derry City 6W.
What form are Cork City and Derry City in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Derry City's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.56
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.55
1.40
Derry City xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cork City and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cork City and 1.40 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cork City's recent record stands at 4W 12D 19L from 35 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 9L across 35 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 4W 8D 5L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.69 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derry City's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cork City are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.46 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cork City have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Derry City in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 4W 12D 19L in their last 35 games (0.69 PPG), while Derry City have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.18 PPG; Derry City away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Cork City or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Derry City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cork City and Derry City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cork City's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
1
Draws
7
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, Derry City have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Cork City 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 71%, Derry City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cork City) and 41% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cork City's games and 53% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cork City vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cork City's recent games and 41% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Derry City tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Derry City in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Cork City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Cork City 0-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.15 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cork City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 30% | Draw 28% | Derry City 42%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 49%, Derry City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.