Bohemians 2-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 25 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Bohemians's games and 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s (from Bohemians's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bohemians have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2025, ended Bohemians 0–3 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.92 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.934 / defence 0.943 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.941 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.216. St Patrick's Athl. bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bohemians's projected output down. Data: built from Bohemians's last 47 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 47.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.35 | Draw 3.11 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bohemians 80% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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