Bohemians 1-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 27 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 1W 4D 5L at Dalymount Park — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bohemians against 1.20 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Sligo Rovers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Sligo Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.66 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.011 / defence 0.810 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.047 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.088. Sligo Rovers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bohemians games / 57 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 55% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 21%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Sligo Rovers 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | Sligo Rovers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 55% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.66 / Sligo Rovers 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.011 / def 0.810 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.047 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sligo Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 June 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 55% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 0 | Sligo Rovers 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.01) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.05x) against Bohemians's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.11
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.59
0.92
Sligo Rovers xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
4%
25.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.92 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 26W 22D 24L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 23W 17D 32L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Bohemians against 1.19 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 9D 20L from 36 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Sligo Rovers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians) and 61% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians's games and 53% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bohemians's matches and 61% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Sligo Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 22, as Bohemians and Sligo Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.66 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.92 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 55% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 21%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.