Bohemians 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 17 June 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.34 xG and Shelbourne 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.098 / defence 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 0.862 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.156. Data: 54 Bohemians games / 18 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 43% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 43% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.34 / Shelbourne 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.098 / def 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 0.862 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shelbourne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 43% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bohemians home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.10) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.86x) against Bohemians's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 54/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.68
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.42
1.08
Shelbourne xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.08 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.34 xG and Shelbourne 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 43% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 30%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.