Bohemians 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Full Analysis

Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 13). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Bohemians have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Shamrock Rovers away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.90 PPG clear of Bohemians over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading

Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Shamrock Rovers 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Shamrock Rovers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.90 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.917 / defence 0.975 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.139 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 0.946. Data: built from Bohemians's last 48 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 49.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 29% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.45 | Draw 2.96 | Shamrock Rovers 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 60% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).

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