Bohemians 2-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bohemians, 1.40 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Drogheda United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Drogheda United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.51 xG and Drogheda United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.175 / defence 1.314 | Drogheda United attack 0.670 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.170. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Bohemians games / 34 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 3.85. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 60% | Drogheda United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1.51 / Drogheda United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.175 / def 1.314 | Drogheda United attack 0.670 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Drogheda United xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 48% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.67x) against Bohemians's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.87
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Drogheda United xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.03 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 12W 9D 12L from 33 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 14L across 33 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bohemians against 1.24 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 7W 4D 5L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Drogheda United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.56 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 62%, Drogheda United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Bohemians) and 50% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Drogheda United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bohemians's recent matches and 44% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bohemians's matches and 50% of Drogheda United's.
Do Bohemians and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Drogheda United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.51 xG and Drogheda United 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.18 / defence 1.31 against Drogheda United attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Drogheda United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, Drogheda United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.