Bohemians 3-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 20 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 7W 1D 2L at Dalymount Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bohemians, 1.70 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 50% versus Derry City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 54% | Derry City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.47 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.328 / defence 1.004 | Derry City attack 0.925 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.189. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Bohemians games / 26 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 3.57. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Derry City 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Bohemians 1.47 / Derry City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.328 / def 1.004 | Derry City attack 0.925 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Derry City xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 3 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 45% chance of winning, Derry City a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.93x) against Bohemians's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.84
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.57
1.10
Derry City xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.10 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 11W 4D 9L from 24 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 6L across 24 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Bohemians against 1.58 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Bohemians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derry City's away record stands at 7W 1D 3L across 11 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.58 PPG overall record — Derry City travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.33 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 11W 4D 9L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Derry City have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Bohemians's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 2.00 PPG; Derry City away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derry City in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 46%, Derry City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 46% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bohemians's recent matches and 54% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians's recent games and 46% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Derry City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Derry City share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 26, as Bohemians and Derry City drew 3-3 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.47 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.33 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 45% | Draw 26% | Derry City 28%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 54%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.54 PPG, Derry City 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.