Bohemians 3-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cork City have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bohemians have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Cork City have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2025, ended 2–0 with Bohemians winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Cork City trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 37% versus Cork City 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 41% | Cork City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.74 xG and Cork City 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.977 / defence 0.856 | Cork City attack 0.814 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.010. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Bohemians games / 27 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 62% | Draw 24% | Cork City 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Cork City 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Cork City 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 62% | Draw 24% | Cork City 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Bohemians 1.74 / Cork City 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.977 / def 0.856 | Cork City attack 0.814 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Cork City xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Cork City kick off?
Bohemians vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Bohemians 3 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Bohemians vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Cork City part of?
Bohemians vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 62% chance of winning, Cork City a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 5W | Draws 0 | Cork City 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Cork City (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.98) and Cork City's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.15
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.44
0.70
Cork City xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
2%
40.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.70 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 4D 10L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.70 PPG from 27 outings (3W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cork City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians's home form reads 8W 1D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.23 points per game from 13 outings (0W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cork City in 74%.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Cork City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 13W 4D 10L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Cork City have gone 3W 10D 14L in their last 27 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Cork City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.92 PPG; Cork City away: 0.23 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cork City in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
0
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Cork City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Cork City?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 31%, Cork City 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Bohemians) and 62% (Cork City).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bohemians's recent matches and 77% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Bohemians's recent games and 62% of Cork City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Cork City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cork City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Cork City 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.74 xG and Cork City 0.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Cork City attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 63/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 62% | Draw 24% | Cork City 14%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 41%, Cork City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cork City's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.