Bohemians 4-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Cork City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Cork City have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Cork City and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Jun 2023, ended Bohemians 1–2 Cork City — a Cork City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cork City trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 46% | Cork City 51%). Note also that Cork City surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.37 xG and Cork City 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.191 / defence 1.180 | Cork City attack 0.863 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.965. Cork City's defence rating of 1.402 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 71 games and Cork City's last 35.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.48 | Draw 5.23 | Cork City 7.50. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Cork City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 60% (last 10 home games) | Cork City 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 36 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Bohemians 2.37 / Cork City 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.191 / def 1.180 | Cork City attack 0.863 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cork City xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Cork City FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Cork City kick off?
Bohemians vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Bohemians 4 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Bohemians vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Cork City part of?
Bohemians vs Cork City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 36) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 68% chance of winning, Cork City a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians and Cork City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.19) and Cork City's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 71 games and Cork City's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.23
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.35
0.98
Cork City xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
9%
10.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
1%
80.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Cork City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.98 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.89 PPG from 35 outings (8W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across their last 17 home games, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.53 points per game from their last 17 away games (2W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Cork City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Cork City Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Cork City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.82 PPG; Cork City away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cork City in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 22 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won Bohemians 5-0 Cork City.
Bohemians's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
0
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Cork City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 6, Cork City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Cork City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2025: Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Cork City?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 59%, Cork City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Bohemians and 65% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cork City in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Cork City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Cork City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Cork City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bohemians's matches and 65% of Cork City's.
Do Bohemians and Cork City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bohemians's recent matches and 88% of Cork City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Cork City 4-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.37 xG and Cork City 0.98 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Cork City attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 71/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 68% | Draw 19% | Cork City 13%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 46%, Cork City 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cork City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.